The often-undervalued half of the financial forecast. Most businesses build revenue forecasts carefully and expense forecasts sloppily - which is exactly why their cash projections miss.

Definition

Expense Forecast - a projection of future expenses by category and period. Built by splitting expenses into fixed (predictable from current run rate) and variable (scaling with revenue), plus lumpy one-offs in their actual months.

Common uses

  • Cash flow projection - expenses are half the cash forecast
  • Budget setting - the forecast informs the commitments
  • Margin planning - watching expense ratios as revenue scales

Watch out

Most expense forecasts miss 5-10% to hidden costs - subscription creep, annual renewals, payroll true-ups. Build a buffer or audit annually.